As the United States increases its discussions with Ukraine and Russia and President Donald Trump expresses hope for an imminent peace agreement, there remain crucial disagreements between Kyiv and Moscow. Key issues include control over disputed regions in Eastern Ukraine and the provision of security guarantees, particularly important for Kyiv to deter potential future Russian attacks and secure military support from allies.
Ukraine seeks concrete security assurances, beyond mere promises from its allies. The Budapest Memorandum, agreed upon in 1994 after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, failed to prevent Russia’s actions in Crimea and Donbas, leading to the current conflict. While Ukraine aims for NATO membership, lacking unanimous support within the alliance, Kyiv seeks U.S.-backed security commitments.
Discussions include proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine inspired by NATO’s Article 5, which mandates collective defense among member states. Russia reportedly suggested a similar security pledge during talks, with leaked documents indicating a U.S. role in ensuring Ukraine’s security.
The 28-point peace plan endorsed by Moscow and Washington remains ambiguous, mentioning “reliable” security assurances involving the U.S. A European counterproposal reinforces the idea of a U.S. security guarantee resembling Article 5.
The specifics of these security guarantees, such as their enforcement and commitments from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, remain under negotiation. Experts suggest a potential security agreement akin to those with South Korea and Japan, requiring U.S. congressional approval for implementation.
Regarding peacekeeping efforts, several allies, including Canada, consider deploying troops after a ceasefire, although Russia opposes NATO forces in Eastern Ukraine. Discussions contemplate alternatives like stationing peacekeepers in neighboring countries.
President Trump ruled out sending American troops to Ukraine, emphasizing potential U.S. roles in surveillance and support from NATO territories in the event of significant developments.
Russia’s objectives include preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership and resisting concessions, emphasizing its strategic goals. The conflict’s resolution remains uncertain, with ongoing negotiations signaling a significant diplomatic effort, albeit with substantial hurdles to overcome.
Further talks involving U.S. and Ukrainian officials are planned, as both sides aim to finalize a comprehensive deal before presidential meetings.