The agreement between the United States and Russia that limited their strategic nuclear weapons deployment has come to an end, sparking uncertainty about the intentions of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The expiration of the New START treaty, which was part of a long history of nuclear arms control agreements between the two nations dating back to 1972, means that there is currently no formal pact in place to cap the size of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals.
While opinions vary on whether the termination of the treaty will trigger a new arms race, experts largely agree that the agreement requires significant updates to address present-day nuclear dynamics, particularly considering the expansion of China’s nuclear program. However, the likelihood of a swift consensus among Trump, Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping on modernizing the treaty seems optimistic at best.
Former U.S. diplomat Thomas Countryman, who previously held a key arms control position, expressed concerns about the increased risk of a nuclear conflict in the absence of a treaty, comparing the current situation to the heightened tensions during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
Under the now-defunct treaty, both the U.S. and Russia committed to limiting their nuclear warhead stockpiles to 1,550 each and restricting their deployment of intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and launchers. Despite Russian President Putin hinting at a treaty renewal before his summit with Trump in Alaska last year, the proposal never materialized.
Trump has downplayed the significance of the treaty’s expiration, emphasizing his desire for a new, enhanced agreement. The White House Press Secretary mentioned that the President aims to work on a modernized treaty with Russia to ensure long-term stability in nuclear arms control.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the sentiment of minimizing the treaty’s end and stressed the necessity of involving China in future arms control discussions due to its substantial and growing nuclear arsenal.
Regarding China’s nuclear capabilities, a recent Pentagon report projected a significant increase in the country’s nuclear warheads by 2030, raising concerns about the lack of constraints on China’s nuclear buildup following the treaty’s expiration.
Efforts are reportedly underway between the U.S. and Russia to maintain the weapon limits outlined in the New START agreement without formally extending the treaty. However, uncertainties persist about the future landscape of nuclear disarmament in the absence of a concrete agreement.
Despite differing views on the treaty’s significance, experts emphasize the need to address China’s nuclear expansion and stress the importance of negotiating updated agreements to ensure strategic stability in the evolving global nuclear landscape.