In the wee hours of Wednesday, telescopes worldwide are set to witness a rare event: an aging rocket crashing into the illuminated side of the moon. This rocket is the second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 that carried two lunar landers, Firefly Blue Ghost-1 from the U.S. and Hakuto-R Resilience from Japan, launched in January 2025.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray, who tracks objects in space, noticed last September that the rocket would make a close approach to the moon on August 5, 2026. Determining the precise orbital details was challenging due to the slight gravitational influence of the sun in addition to the moon and Earth.
After refining the orbit, Gray realized that rather than a close approach, the rocket was on a collision course with the moon. The impact is expected to occur on the moon’s illuminated side near its edge.
This event is not the first time a human-made object has struck the lunar surface. Previous impacts include Apollo upper stages and intentional collisions carried out for various purposes. Entities like NASA’s Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite and ESA’s SMART-1 spacecraft have also impacted the moon, leaving visible imprints on its surface.
Astronomers are inviting large observatories and serious amateurs to observe the upcoming impact on August 5 at 2:34:32.9 a.m. ET. The best viewing locations are in central and eastern Canada and the U.S., as well as parts of the Caribbean and South America.
The rocket, moving at a speed of approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, is anticipated to release a plume of debris into space. The astronomers estimate that over one million kilograms of debris could be ejected before most of it falls back onto the lunar surface.
The significance of this impact lies in the insights it may provide regarding potential risks posed by such artificial impacts as human missions to the moon increase. Understanding both direct and indirect hazards is crucial for future lunar explorations.
The event will be closely monitored by astronomers like Bill Gray, who are continuously analyzing potential impacts from various space objects. Vigilance is maintained to assess risks and ensure the safety of future lunar missions.