A day prior to Russian President Vladimir Putin welcoming members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent “peace” delegation at the Kremlin, Ukraine’s former foreign minister shared his evaluation of the current state of efforts to resolve the conflict in his country with an audience in Kyiv.
Dmytro Kuleba, who served as Ukraine’s international representative during Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, offered insights based on years of experience within Ukraine’s government and exposure to the realities of international politics.
During a conference on Dec. 1, Kuleba described Ukraine’s situation as a “tactical defeat but a strategic victory,” acknowledging the harsh reality that Ukraine must face. The tactical defeat stems from the loss of approximately 19% of the country’s territory to Russia and the tragic loss of tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives.
However, Kuleba emphasized the strategic victory in surviving Putin’s attempts to dismantle Ukraine as a state and erase its national identity. He urged Ukrainians to acknowledge this dynamic as a potential outcome of any peace negotiations.
The recent U.S. delegation presented a binary outcome to Putin, offering Russia control over Ukrainian territory while ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty, including the authority to make decisions regarding its armed forces, alliances, and strategic positioning. Despite this, Putin rejected the proposal, indicating that Russia seeks more favorable terms.
Putin’s demands include Ukraine relinquishing the entire Donbas region to Russia, restricting Ukraine’s access to NATO, capping its military strength, prohibiting long-range missiles, implementing special provisions for Russian speakers, and calling for President Zelenskyy’s resignation.
Despite facing significant casualties, Putin remains steadfast in his goal to eliminate Ukraine as an independent state, believing that Trump can aid in achieving this objective. The prospect of a genuine peace agreement seems unlikely, as Putin aims to convey Russia’s terms directly to Trump, bypassing intermediaries in an effort to pressure Ukraine into acceptance.
While Trump has highlighted potential economic opportunities post-war, Putin’s historical perspective envisions the restoration of the “Russian world” lost after the Soviet Union’s collapse. He has emphasized Russia’s historical claims to Ukrainian territory, portraying a Western-aligned Ukraine as a threat to Russia.
Putin’s anti-Ukraine sentiments resonate with many Russians, but a substantial portion of the population supports peace talks alongside military actions in Ukraine. Putin’s forces have made significant advances in certain regions, albeit at a high cost in casualties. Ukraine faces challenges such as energy shortages and political turmoil amid the ongoing conflict.
Although polls indicate a desire among Ukrainians to end the war, the likelihood of Zelenskyy accepting Putin’s terms remains slim. Ukrainian analysts suggest that civil society, particularly those with military ties, would protest any agreement perceived as compromising Ukraine’s independence.
The path forward may rely on Trump’s involvement, given his potential to influence the situation through military assistance to Ukraine and economic sanctions targeting Russia. Zelenskyy fears a complete disengagement by the U.S. in the face of irreconcilable differences between Ukrainian and Russian positions.
Zelenskyy expressed concerns about Russia’s goal to alienate American interest in the conflict, emphasizing the importance of U.S. support in the ongoing crisis.