An inquiry into potential tampering with temperature sensors at the Paris airport to influence online betting outcomes has drawn attention to the increasing popularity of climate-related bets. Recently, a few accounts on Polymarket, an online betting platform, raked in substantial winnings following a sudden 5-degree Celsius spike in temperature readings within a day earlier this month.
This incident has sparked discussions on the ethics of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to place bets on climate-related events such as hurricane strength or the likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year on record. While some criticize these platforms, experts interviewed by CBC News suggest that weather betting could actually enhance climate science and potentially sway climate change skeptics.
Moran Cerf, a neuroscience and business professor at Columbia University in New York, conducted a study where participants engaged in prediction markets on various climate events like the California wildfires. The study revealed that individuals who participated in these markets exhibited heightened awareness and concern for climate change, with even some skeptics potentially changing their views.
Climate change, despite its increasing impact, continues to face skepticism. A January 2025 poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that nearly a quarter of Canadians do not believe humans are primarily responsible for climate change, while nine percent doubt the existence of climate change altogether.
Cerf emphasized the challenge of convincing individuals with varying levels of skepticism about human-induced global warming. He noted that climate impacts, such as rising sea levels and food system collapses, are often distant events, particularly affecting populations in developing countries far from North America. Prediction markets, however, bridge this gap by offering immediate feedback through real-time probability shifts and payouts, fostering more short-term impact awareness.
In a bid to advance climate science, Mark Roulston, a climate scientist at the University of Lancaster in the U.K., initiated an academic project where university research teams engage in prediction markets without using real money. These markets aim to aggregate expert predictions on significant climate events, facilitating more accurate forecasting and encouraging model development.
Roulston envisions broader applications for prediction markets, proposing their use in calculating actuarial risks for insurance companies and securing research funding for scientists. By leveraging expert insights through prediction markets, governments could make informed decisions on critical issues like sea-level rise.
While short-term binary options are prohibited in Canada, Wealthsimple recently gained approval to operate certain types of prediction markets in the country, focusing on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. However, concerns persist regarding the impact of short-term bets on climate change awareness and the potential for data manipulation, as seen in the Paris incident.
The evolution of prediction markets offers a unique avenue for enhancing climate science and engaging a broader audience in climate change discourse.