In the realm of Canadian politics, the act of MPs switching party affiliations, commonly known as floor-crossing, evokes a range of reactions from traitorous and shameful to brave and principled. However, the historical track record reveals that one key term often associated with such moves is “re-electable.”
The recent announcement of Conservative stalwart Chris d’Entremont’s shift to the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others may follow suit, sent shockwaves through Ottawa. While floor-crossing is a long-standing tradition in Canadian politics dating back to Confederation, a closer examination of historical data indicates it has increasingly posed electoral risks for politicians.
According to Semra Sevi, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto specializing in political science, switching parties is a high-stakes gamble that typically diminishes an incumbent’s chances of securing re-election. Sevi’s comprehensive analysis tracking MPs who changed party allegiances from Confederation to 2015 underscores a significant shift in electoral outcomes over time.
While early floor-crossers often maintained their vote share in subsequent elections, the trend has shifted since the 1970s. Sevi attributes this shift to the growing institutionalization of political parties, which has elevated the electoral price of switching allegiances, making survival outside one’s original party increasingly precarious.
Despite the risks, numerous MPs have opted to change affiliations over the years, with outcomes ranging from joining rival parties to sitting as Independents. The success of such moves often hinges on whether voters perceive the switch as genuine or opportunistic.
In d’Entremont’s case, his departure from the Conservative Party was motivated by a perceived lack of alignment with the leadership style of Pierre Poilievre. As a more progressive conservative, d’Entremont aims to resonate with his constituents in Acadie-Annapolis, a region that has historically supported both Liberal and Conservative candidates. While there may be political repercussions for such a move, there are no legal barriers preventing MPs from changing party affiliations.
Notable instances of floor-crossing in Canadian history include Jenica Atwin’s transition from the Green Party to the Liberals, Leona Alleslev’s switch from the Liberals to the Conservatives, and Eve Adams’ move from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Each case reflects the complexities and potential consequences of crossing the floor, with varying outcomes in subsequent elections.
As d’Entremont embarks on this new political journey, he may find inspiration from past floor-crossers like Scott Brison, who successfully navigated party changes and retained voter support election after election. While the road ahead may be challenging, only time will reveal the ultimate impact of d’Entremont’s decision on his political future.