After a year and a half of reduced travel to the United States, Canadians are slowly starting to venture back across the border. Recent data from Statistics Canada reveals that in June, Canadian return trips from the U.S. saw a 3.2% increase compared to the same period last year. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, following a 9.5% rise in May and a 1.4% uptick in April.
The rise in inbound travel was predominantly driven by an increase in car travel, with 5.2% more Canadians returning from the U.S. by road than in the previous June. Conversely, air travel saw a 3.8% decline year-over-year for the same month.
Despite these positive trends, Canadian travel to the U.S. remains significantly below pre-2024 levels, with a substantial 28.7% decrease compared to before the trade war tensions and annexation threats under U.S. President Donald Trump deterred Canadians from making U.S. travel plans.
Wayne Smith, director of Toronto Metropolitan University’s Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research, views the recent uptick as a gradual “normalization” rather than a full return to pre-pandemic travel patterns. He believes that the current travel rate represents a new normal, reflecting the prolonged decrease in Canadian visitors to the U.S. over the past 18 months.
Kristy Kennedy, vice-president of marketing and operations at the North Country Chamber of Commerce, notes a slight increase in Canadian travel near the New York State border with Quebec. Local businesses have observed more Canadian visitors, indicating a positive shift from the previous year when many Canadians opted to stay home.
Amir Eylon, president and CEO of travel consultancy Longwoods International, suggests that recent cross-border travel growth may be attributed to successful marketing campaigns offering incentives such as discounts and favorable exchange rates. Additionally, factors like rising airfare costs due to increased jet fuel prices and events like the World Cup co-hosted by Canada, the U.S., and Mexico may have influenced travel decisions.
While the industry is cautiously optimistic about the recent growth in cross-border travel, experts like Smith emphasize that challenges such as changing travel preferences and a weak Canadian dollar could hinder a full recovery in U.S. tourism. The data indicates that the recent increase in travel primarily stems from car trips, while air travel remains subdued, potentially impacting the overall tourism sector in the United States.